Kategorie: News
Corrected measurements significantly increase the number of people affected
New research shows that sea levels along many coastlines are significantly higher than assumed in most risk assessments. A team led by Philip Minderhoud and Katharina Seeger concludes in Nature that regions in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific in particular deviate by about 1 to 1.5 meters from the previously calculated level and are more severely affected than previously thought.
The reason for this is the common practice of using geoid models as a reference, which theoretically derive global sea levels from gravity and rotation. However, these models do not take into account local factors such as winds, ocean currents, tides, and temperature and salinity fluctuations that affect actual coastal sea levels. The researchers compared land elevations with satellite-based sea level measurements worldwide and analyzed 385 studies; more than 90 percent did not use direct sea level measurements.
The corrected calculations show that with a relative sea level rise of one meter, 37 percent more land area and 68 percent more people—up to 132 million—would fall below sea level than previously assumed. This means that the consequences and timeframe for adaptation measures are more urgent in many regions.
The team is making its method and globally corrected coastal elevation data available and is calling for this approach to become the new standard in order to assess risks more accurately and plan protective measures in a more targeted manner.
Original study: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10196-1
Video on the topic: https://vimeo.com/1162103411/bf1308bb65